Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 106 ‘Burns vs. Morales’

It’s a bit of a shame that the 256th numbered Fight Night event for the Ultimate Fighting Championship just so happens to be the 257th Prime Picks piece authored. What numerical fun that would have been. The promotion shells back up in the UFC Apex this Saturday in Las Vegas with a card featuring some baffling betting lines, but with great disparity comes great avenues for value. Keep in mind that a suggestion on Prime Picks for a massive underdog generally means we see paths to victory in the plus-money athlete while also being fully cognizant that the lines are usually that way for a reason. With this show, we give it up for those plays that will profit big should they happen to hit.

Gilbert Burns (+625)

A bit over a year ago, Burns was up two rounds and change against future champ Jack Della Maddalena. But for the stick-to-it-iveness of “JDM,” Burns was cruising for the upset. It’s true that age is catching up to “Durinho” faster than he would like, and a losing streak has shown his weakness for grinding grapplers who are not susceptible to easy subs and opponents who can exceed his power. Michael Morales is an excellent fighter, one who could yet develop into a champion. He should be the betting favorite over a man 13 years his elder; that much is clear. However, there’s no welterweight on Earth who should be a 10-to-1 favorite against a dangerous competitor like Burns, who still can hurt foes on the feet and snatch a submission in the blink of an eye.

A full-throated endorsement on Burns, 38, is a bridge too far. However, a flier is well within the bounds of possibility, and it might be one of the better avenues through which to approach this headliner. Morales is prohibitively favored, to the point that even in a parlay, his multiplier will not bring much to the table. Prop bets like suggesting Morales will score the knockout or hang on to win on the scorecards—currently -195 and +275—are not worth the squeeze. This is a prime example where, as one famed sports bettor haunting UFC broadcasts puts it, someone should “sprinkle.” While a hearty bet on Burns would net a daring bettor a hefty chunk of change, even something trivial could turn around a decent steak dinner if Burns wins. As long as Burns still has gas in the tank in the likely event that Morales does not go down face-first in an opening flurry, he is still in the fight. Approach the main event at your own peril, but this has the makings of a ’dog or bust scenario on the sportsbooks.

Sodiq Yusuff (+110)

Betting odds and the bettors that sway them are truly remarkable. For this main card contest, on paper Yusuff-Santos looks like the kind of fight where a more experienced veteran gives way to a young, hungry thundercat. In this case, Yusuff is the ancient age of 31, and the men that have beaten him recent just so happen to be three of the best competitors in the division. While the ceiling may have been reached for “Super Sodiq”—and that’s not even certain, given that he’s still in the midst of his athletic prime—it’s a ceiling that Mairon Santos has come nowhere near attaining. Strength of schedule can be a decent but not foolproof predictor of how fights may go, since experience matters greatly for dealing with adversity and fighters handling opponents with greater skills than their own. Yusuff as the underdog is being slept on here.

Were it not for some extremely wayward scores in Santos’ last fight against Francis Marshall—where every single media scorer believed Marshall won the fight and most of them thought he won all three rounds—this line would likely look quite different. As it stands, Santos rides a three-fight winning streak into this contest while Yusuff has dropped two in a row, which plays a factor on the optics. The Kaan Ofli knockout was no joke, but the Aussie is a far cry from the likes of Yusuff and his opposition. When adding in that Yusuff has proven to be more active and accurate against better adversaries and that he will be going against a pure striker who has not sniffed a takedown or submission attempt, it remains a marvel that he’s an underdog.

Julian Erosa-Melquizael Costa Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (+130)

While Erosa may have finally turned the corner, as evidenced by his UFC record skyrocketing from one below .500 to 8-3 in his third stint with the company, the action fighter still does not shy away from a fierce encounter. His last five outings have ended in the first round, win or lose, largely because he chose violence. Luckily for “Juicy J,” he draws a fellow blood-and-guts battler in Costa, who may not have the penchant for first-round destructions but will throw down when given the invitation. The victor is immaterial for this propular action, where a stoppage on either side before 2:30 of the second stanza will cash this ticket.

Typically, it has been a question of durability when Costa sets foot in the cage. If he takes on someone that check his chin, like Steve Garcia, or one who is capable of snaring a stoppage in a snap like Thiago Moises, it’s a bad night at the office for “Melk Cauthy.” On the other hand, a blazing-fast head kick, a guillotine with little setup or a heel hook out of nowhere are but a few of the weapons at the Brazilian’s disposal. Bonus money is practically earmarked for this featherweight clash, one that should end in the blink of an eye, likely in the opening frame.

Yadier Del Valle Wins Inside Distance (+125)

When thinking of competitors from New England, there are plenty of names that excelled in the Octagon. Kenny Florian, Mike Thomas Brown, Marcus Davis, Joe Lauzon and Tim Boetsch are just a few that used to be part of the roster. Now, Rob Font and Calvin Kattar are about the only two who currently hold the line, and the rest of the pickups—of which there have been many, thanks to the pipeline of the New England Cartel—have not fared well, to put it mildly. Such is the case for Connor Matthews, who reached the promotion on a respectable win over Jair Farias, only to get his face rearranged twice thus far. An undefeated Cuban by way of Houston, Del Valle may be a bit of an unknown. However, considering he grew up in the Fury Fighting Championship circuit in comparison to Matthews, with noteworthy wins over Jay Ellis and Rob Fuller, it is night and day.

Like the case for many athletes who get to the big leagues, speedy finishes and high-risk maneuvers that worked so well against regional competitors dry up fast. The big home-run shots with no setup find themselves crashing into gloves ready for counters rather than connecting with unblocked chins as the level of competition raises. The 50% finish rate for “The Cuban Problem” might be a risky proposition for what it presents, but he will be standing across from a defensively porous, high-intensity attacker who leads with his chin and asks questions later. When facing an opponent who can put up huge numbers in the blink of an eye, the Massachusetts native will find his chin tested early and often. Based on prior results, it has not held up at this stage in the game, making this prop bet a choice option.