Opinion: A Troublesome Flyweight Holding Pattern

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There has been controversy surrounding Sean O’Malley getting a rematch with Merab Dvalishvili despite not having done anything in the interim. On the other hand, Dvalishvili defended his crown against Umar Nurmagomedov in January, setting the stage for him to be the first champion to defend his belt twice in 2025. By the time that fight takes place, barring injury, it will leave only one division outside of heavyweight—where Jon Jones looks to defend his title as little as possible—that hasn’t had a championship fight in 2025: flyweight.

That seems odd to say, as Alexandre Pantoja has been one of the busiest champions since he claimed the flyweight throne in 2023. It doesn’t appear to be reluctance on the part of Pantoja, as he appears eager to build on his legacy as much as possible, knowing his age is likely to limit the amount of time he can spend at the top of the heap. There hasn’t been a reported injury to Pantoja that might be delaying a potential defense. I wouldn’t say it’s out of the realm of possibility that he asked for a bit more time from his last defense from what he has typically requested, but I could also see it being that the Ultimate Fighting Championship isn’t sure what to do.

The situation with Pantoja is unique. He sits atop a division that is one of the most exciting in the sport. There are a couple of contenders that appear to be worthy of holding the crown themselves, but there’s one very big problem. Pantoja has beaten them both—multiple times. Unofficially, Pantoja has three wins over Brandon Moreno, with one of them coming on “The Ultimate Fighter.” Officially, he has two wins over Moreno and Brandon Royval. Both were knocked off by Pantoja most recently in 2023, so it’s not like they were toppled in the distant past. While those fights with Pantoja were competitive, they weren’t barnburners, either, lessening the likelihood of anyone wanting to see a third official contest between the champion and either Moreno or Royval.

One might ask, aren’t there any other contenders? The answer? Kind of. The most popular rumor out there is that the UFC is looking to book Kai Kara-France to fight Pantoja next. However, Kara-France is someone Pantoja previously defeated. Granted, it wasn’t an official loss since it happened on “The Ultimate Fighter.” Then again, Kara-France has lost two of his last three fights, so he doesn’t exactly feel like the most deserving contender. He does have a history of finishing fights and proving to be at least competitive with the best the division has to offer, so it isn’t completely out of left field that he’s being considered.

The other part of the problem is that Moreno and Royval are both being used in a Jon Fitch-type role. For those unfamiliar with Fitch, he was the undisputed No. 2 welterweight in the world during several years of Georges St. Pierre’s long reign. The UFC was reluctant to grant him a title shot due to his grapple-heavy approach that was perceived as boring. He did finally receive a shot and was dominated by GSP, leaving the UFC happy to use him as a filter for several years after. He effectively picked off potential contender after potential contender during that time. Over a span of 14 fights to open his UFC career, Fitch’s only loss was to GSP.

That worked out effectively enough, as the road to a title shot doesn’t always have to lead through one man. However, finding a reasonable path that doesn’t lead through either Moreno or Royval is kind of difficult. Thus far, they have effectively derailed a pair of new potential contenders in Amir Albazi and Tatsuro Taira. Royval is now booked with Manel Kape this summer, so it’s plausible a potential third contender goes down. Obviously, it’s good for their careers to continue winning, but it’s problematic for the development of the division.

With no one able to break through the Moreno-Royval wall, the UFC had to go outside the organization to find a worthy contender for Pantoja’s most recent title defense. Unfortunately, Kai Asakura didn’t prove to be as competitive as the UFC hoped. Thus, even though the UFC had the opportunity to do so once again when Kyoji Horiguchi announced his signing at the end of March, it opted to book the Japanese star against Tagir Ulanbekov.

However, longtime fans know Horiguchi isn’t making his UFC debut; that came all the way back in 2013. In fact, Horiguchi has fought in the UFC eight times, with his lone loss coming in a title fight against Demetrious Johnson. Furthermore, that’s Horiguchi’s only loss at flyweight, with the rest of his career losses coming at bantamweight. What makes it even more confusing is that he’s 15 years into his professional career with 39 fights under his belt. If he’s still in his prime, one would think it wouldn’t last much longer. This would be the perfect time for the UFC to once again plug a different face into the title picture. Instead, the UFC is having Horiguchi face a fringe Top 10 fighter.

There are two other X factors that have shaped this situation. After disposing of Asakura, Pantoja declared he wanted to face the aforementioned Johnson. “Mighty Mouse” politely declined, but there’s also reason to believe the UFC didn’t make a serious push to lure Johnson out of retirement. Given the lack of current options, it would have made a lot of sense had the UFC made a push in the manner it did with GSP in 2017.

The other factor is Muhammad Mokaev making himself persona non grata by sucker punching Kape outside of the cage before their scheduled contest last summer. Mokaev didn’t help the situation by attempting to “pants” Kape during the fight, which proved to be one of the worst bouts in recent memory from an aesthetic standpoint. Despite Mokaev’s 7-0 record inside the Octagon, UFC CEO Dana White was done with his antics and didn’t even offer him a new deal upon the expiration of his contract. That eliminated an obvious contender, too.

Perhaps we wouldn’t be having this discussion had Mokaev not acted like a fool or if the UFC had made a real effort to lure Johnson out of retirement, as Pantoja had hoped. As it sits, the UFC’s flyweight division is in a weird place, and it doesn’t feel like a Pantoja win over Kara-France will do much to change that. Unless the UFC has something major up its sleeve—or Kara-France shocks the world—the division is in a holding pattern, and the promotion only has itself to blame.