Preview: UFC 207 ‘Nunes vs. Rousey’

Flyweights

Louis Smolka (11-2) vs. Ray Borg (9-2)

THE MATCHUP: Smolka and Borg are two of the best, most dangerous submission artists in the division, and neither man is shy about tangling with another grappler. That means this fight will largely play out on the ground -- unless Borg has transformed himself as a fighter.

It has only been 10 months since Borg’s one-sided loss to Justin Scoggins, which is why I have my doubts, but “The Tazmexican Devil” has since moved to Jackson-Wink MMA and begun polishing his striking under the watchful eye of Brandon Gibson, who has worked wonders with nearly every fighter he has trained. Borg is probably the superior takedown artist in this matchup, and he is almost certainly the more explosive athlete. If he can show off some dramatically improved striking, it could very well be the edge he needs to dictate the pace and whereabouts of this fight and effectively shut out Smolka.

If that striking still needs breaking in, however, Smolka will be there to poke holes. Smolka is a better wrestler than he seems. In the last three years, only Patrick Holohan has managed to fight Smolka without being taken down -- and Smolka simply let Holohan do the wrestling before wrapping up his neck. Once on the ground, Smolka is a phenomenal scrambler, adept at finding his way to top position and the back. Smolka was submitted in a surprising upset last time out, but that should be a much-needed lesson for him. If the lesson was taken in stride, Smolka should be more methodical and patient on the ground against Borg, although hopefully not reluctant to grapple.

THE ODDS: Borg (-131), Smolka (+111)

THE PICK: Borg is the better athlete and wrestler, but I expect he will struggle with Smolka’s scrambling. With most fighters, you can judge their chances of winning statistically. For example, whenever Borg’s opponents take him down, he tends to lose. No such pattern exists with Smolka. He gets outwrestled and then finds a submission. If no one wrestles, he gets a knockout. If he wrestles, he has his way. Smolka is simply too scrappy to predict accurately, and that scrappiness will lead him to victory here. So long as Borg is something like the fighter he was in February, Smolka wins via unanimous decision.

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