UFC 137 Preview: The Main Card

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Heavyweights
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic (27-9-2, 4-5 UFC) vs. Roy Nelson (15-6, 2-2 UFC)

The Matchup: The decline of Filipovic is a tough thing to watch if you were a Pride Fighting Championships fan. Once upon a time, his standup was the single most intimidating weapon in the game, headlined by a left kick that carried a monstrous wallop. Coupled with nimble takedown defense and explosive athleticism, Cro Cop was Igor Vovchanchyn 2.0: the lethal antidote to wrestlers and submission artists whose primitive standing skills often left them unconscious from the muggings he delivered.

Today, Filipovic finds himself in the midst of a tragic drop-off in performance. Struggling to compete against opponents he would have decimated in his prime, he faces the rugged Nelson, whose combination of big-man takedown mojo, chin and punching power make him a tough assignment for anyone. Nelson’s not the technical striker Filipovic once was, but his big overhand right and ability to wrest foes in the clinch are the keys to his success in this matchup.

Nelson is looking to rebound from a disappointing decision loss to Frank Mir, where he was winded and looked flat in the fight, particularly with his grappling. At his best, Nelson combines pressure and overwhelming physical strength, but despite his portly frame, he is an excellent athlete. Plus, his submission game is outstanding, as he uses technically sound jiu-jitsu to control opponents on the ground. Matchup-wise, this is an opportunity for Filipovic to inject new life into his career; for Nelson, it is a chance to make a big showing to remind people of why he won Season 10 of “The Ultimate Fighter” and that he belongs in the next tier of heavyweights.

Mentally, one has to wonder if Filipovic really wants it anymore. He hesitates to pull the trigger and is not in there to prove he is the best heavyweight in the world; it pretty much boils down to a once-great fighter showing up to collect a paycheck. Nelson should be healthier and better conditioned than he was in the Mir bout, and the matchup means he is not likely to be taken to the mat and worn down.

Nelson’s solid one-two and big right hand should force Filipovic into exchanges early and be enough to allow him to switch gears for a takedown. Cro Cop’s hips are still spry and he defends takedowns well enough, but Nelson is still too big and too solid a grappler to allow him to escape once they clinch. Nelson will either score a takedown off a huge right hand or a tie-up, and once it is on the mat, he will go to work.

The Pick: In Cro Cop’s UFC losses he has shown a discouraged look, that of a man that does not want to be in the fight anymore. Nelson will wear him down with counter shots and ground work and deliver a ground-and-pound beating that culminates in a second-round stoppage via punches.

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