It is nice to see Schnell finally get some shine. Schnell was
already a seasoned vet by the time he got to the UFC via “The
Ultimate Fighter” in 2016, and “Danger” seemingly had all the tools
to immediately succeed, showing knockout power to go along with an
impressively slick grappling game. However, Schnell quickly found
himself undone by a surprising lack of durability, an issue
compounded by his proclivity for turning his fights into all-out
wars. Fortunately for Schnell, he found a way to successfully
adjust, pivoting towards a more patient style that took advantage
of his long frame and allowed him to keep his opponents at bay; and
it immediately paid dividends, as Schnell put together four
straight wins to go from the UFC’s cut line to the fringes of the
title picture. Schnell has been a bit less consistent since that
four-fight winning streak, trying to stay patient at times but also
sometimes reverting back to his brawling ways and getting finished
as a result—at least up until his high-profile win over Su Mudaerji
in July. The fight was a clear highlight of one of the UFC’s rare
cards on ABC. What had been an enjoyable fight looked to be turning
the corner towards a clear Mudaerji win, only for Schnell to stage
an impressively violent comeback and score the second-round
submission. Things hit just right for Schnell to be the toast of
the sport for a brief period, and this prominent spot is a nice
move to see if the Louisianian can keep up that momentum, even if
Nicolau may not be the right matchup to make that happen. Brazil’s
Nicolau has been a frustratingly consistent talent since making his
UFC debut in 2015 with a style that runs against the typical
flyweight game. While a lot of the division is known for non-stop
action and scrambling on the mat, Nicolau is a neutralizing fighter
who is at his best while slowing the pace. It is a testament to
Nicolau’s skill and accuracy that his approach works as well as it
does. It seems like Nicolau should be outpaced as a fighter who
also does not seem particularly quick, but he is sharp with his
counters and has proven to be one of the harder fighters in the
division to take down. After a few years out of the UFC as part of
the promotion’s teardown of the flyweight division, Nicolau has
proven tough to crack since his 2021 return, as Manel Kape,
Tim
Elliott and David
Dvorak each failed to get much done against him. Schnell could
certainly drag something exciting out of Nicolau with his
combination of size and aggression, but that does seem like a
losing battle. Nicolau may not be at his best in a brawl, but he is
a sharp-enough puncher that he should land something huge if
Schnell opens himself up defensively. There is also a decent shot
that Schnell is just the latest opponent to be disincentivized into
inactivity by Nicolau, but either way, this looks like the
Brazilian’s fight to lose. The pick is Nicolau via decision.
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