Preview: UFC Mexico ‘Moreno vs. Erceg’

Middleweights

Joe Pyfer (13-3, 4-1 UFC) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (19-9, 13-9 UFC)

ODDS: Pyfer (-310), Gastelum (+250)

While 2024 was a minor setback for Pyfer, he still looks like someone who should make an impact in the middleweight division sooner rather than later. Pyfer’s first trip to Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020 was a complete disaster. Before things really got going, Pyfer gruesomely broke his arm and would wind up out of action for over a year. Upon his return, “Bodybagz” quickly marched his way back to the Contender Series and earned a definitive win to get himself a contract in 2022. Pyfer then spent the remainder of that year and all of 2023 affirming himself as a top prospect, running through what would be some tricky competition for other fighters. Pyfer is big for the division, hits cleanly and powerfully and has some strong grappling to back it all up—a combination of skills that most opponents have not been able to withstand. However, Pyfer’s first fight of 2024 was a main event loss to Jack Hermansson, which read more as a speed bump than exposing him as some sort of fraud. Pyfer had an effective start and simply ran out of ideas but stayed tough as he tired, suggesting he just needs time and experience to learn what he doesn’t yet know. A quick obliteration of Marc-Andre Barriault in Pyfer’s next fight was a reminder that he’s still someone to watch, and Gastelum is a strong choice as a next test.

Gastelum was an unknown prospect when he won Season 17 of “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2013, and it quickly looked like he would become a welterweight title contender thanks to his combination of aggression and durability. But for all of Gastelum’s talent, the welterweight part of that equation proved to be a tough ask, with constant weight issues dogging him to the point that he was essentially forced to move up to middleweight on a full-time basis. Gastelum’s run up the ladder at 185 pounds was a bit odd, as he proved to keep catching former champions and contenders just as they were entering their late-career slides. However, an excellent performance against Israel Adesanya in an interim title fight in 2019 suggested that Gastelum would indeed stick around as a potential champion. Instead, it began a slide of four losses in five fights, as Gastelum’s lackadaisical approach and general lack of evolution seemed to finally catch up with him prompting another attempted move down to welterweight. Gastelum’s first fight back at 170 pounds saw him get consistently outwrestled for the first time in his career by Sean Brady. That proved to be Gastelum’s only fight back at welterweight. His next bout against Daniel Rodriguez was slated for that weight, only for Gastelum to force the fight up to middleweight thanks to his constant issues. There, he leaned on his newfound size advantage for an ugly win. Gastelum is still tough and durable, but he has always relied on his natural athleticism and talent that now seems to be fading after a dozen hard-fought years in the UFC. While Pyfer might still only have two or three ideas, they should remain highly effective. The pick is Pyfer via second-round submission.

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Moreno vs. Erceg
Torres vs. Dober
Pyfer vs. Gastelum
Rosas Jr. vs. Morales
Martinez vs. Oliveira
Rodriguez vs. Borjas
The Prelims