Preview: UFC 296 Prelims

Bantamweights

Cody Garbrandt (13-5, 8-5 UFC) vs. Brian Kelleher (24-14, 8-7 UFC)

ODDS: Garbrandt (-198), Kelleher (+164)

It was nearly seven years ago when Garbrandt upset Dominick Cruz to win the UFC’s bantamweight title, at which point “No Love” looked like the future of the division. Then just 25 years old, Garbrandt had some of the quickest reflexes in the entire sport and put them to good use, continually beating Cruz to the literal punch and leaving no doubt as to who was the better man over five rounds. With that backdrop, Garbrandt’s lack of subsequent success is absolutely astonishing. First came a two-fight series against T.J. Dillashaw that saw Dillashaw handily walk away the victor; Garbrandt nearly scored a quick knockout in their first fight, but Dillashaw proved to be the much technically deeper fighter once he adjusted, luring the Ohio native into an aggressive fight and countering repeatedly until he found the knockout in both bouts. Then came a loss to Pedro Munhoz that put Garbrandt’s issues into even starker contrast. Things went well enough until Garbrandt threw out whatever game plan he had and decided to throw down, leaving himself open to getting blasted repeatedly until he was knocked out once again. Garbrandt briefly rebounded with a knockout win over Raphael Assuncao, but even that fight—along with his two subsequent losses to Rob Font and Kai Kara-France—showed a fighter so far in his head that he struggled to find a consistent approach. He was either passive and reluctant to pull the trigger to the point of ineffectiveness or hunting for the knockout while leaving himself open to getting finished in return. A cut down to flyweight for the Kara-France fight bore no fruit, and Garbrandt’s return to 135 pounds against Trevin Jones earlier this year was yet another worrying sign, even in a decision win. Garbrandt was the slightly more effective participant in a fight where neither man did much of anything for three rounds and did not respond well when Jones got aggressive out of desperation at the very end of the fight. He is still an obvious talent with championship-level athletic tools, but every part of Garbrandt’s game seems rife with liabilities at the moment. It is unclear if any of that will matter against Kelleher.

Kelleher has had an interesting career, as a look at his UFC record marks him as a clear gatekeeper. His losses have all come to fighters that have eventually found their way to top prospect status, while he has cleaned up against various fighters who have not been long for the promotion. It has been fun watching him separate the wheat from the chaff. “Boom” is prone to some slow starts but mostly works through those issues via sheer aggression, making for a lot of fights that end in quick finishes, win or lose. Against someone with the ability for a quick-twitch counter like Garbrandt, that seems like a recipe for Kelleher to walk into a quick knockout, but it is quite unclear at this point whether the former champion has the willingness to pull the trigger and make this an easy night. Even over the long haul, this looks like a matchup where Garbrandt’s physical advantages can carry him to an ugly win, and despite the read that the he can end this fight early, he is still impossible to trust. The pick is Garbrandt via first-round knockout.

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