Preview: UFC 207 ‘Nunes vs. Rousey’

Bantamweights

T.J. Dillashaw (13-3) vs. John Lineker (29-7)

THE MATCHUP: Many of the praises I have heaped on Dominick Cruz could and should be heaped on Dillashaw, as well. Part of the MMA world has united to paint Dillashaw’s loss to Cruz as some kind of schooling, but the truth is much less clear. Twelve of 23 media members polled by MMADecisions.com scored the bout for Cruz, with 10 scoring it for Dillashaw and another calling it a draw. Dillashaw held his own against the best fighter his division has ever seen, and that is an accomplishment that demands respect.

While many have compared their styles directly, Dillashaw’s mindset differs from Cruz’s quite a bit. Where Cruz will only rarely swarm his opponent, usually after having completely befuddled them with his movement, Dillashaw is often keen to pressure. This makes him more hittable than Cruz by a substantial margin, but under Duane Ludwig, Dillashaw has made himself difficult to hit cleanly; and because he uses his short shifts and tight pivots exceptionally well inside the pocket, Dillashaw is always in a good position to respond with some potent offense of his own.

That willingness to engage makes this an interesting matchup. Lineker is not like most fighters. In his coldhearted devotion to doing damage at all costs, Lineker wears a fearless aura not unlike that of Conor McGregor. Like McGregor, Lineker prefers to come forward, and that probably means he is vulnerable to pressure. With that said, how do you pressure a man who is virtually impossible to scare and who stands constantly ready, feet planted, waiting to answer every punch with three of his own?

It will likely not be pressure but craft which will allow Dillashaw to challenge Lineker in ways the Brazilian has never seen before. Dillashaw has made a name of outmaneuvering more static, flat-footed fighters. Raphael Assuncao and Renan Barao are excellent counterpunchers, but Dillashaw made them miss nearly every time they dug in to throw. Then there is Dillashaw’s wrestling, a tool which might slow Lineker’s roll even if he cannot put the fear of God into him.

THE ODDS: Dillashaw (-235), Lineker (+195)

THE PICK: There are a lot of technical advantages in Dillashaw’s corner, but all of them could evaporate if Lineker manages to pressure him the way he has nearly every other opponent. Dillashaw can be tricky and evasive, but he is used to opponents who shy away from his counters; Lineker, on the other hand, may even be encouraged by Dillashaw’s strikes, taking solace in the knowledge that if Dillashaw is close enough to land, he is too. In the end, however, I think Dillashaw is simply too flexible for Lineker. There are a number of different strategies with which he could win this fight, and he has proven to be intelligent enough to adapt on the fly. The pick is Dillashaw by decision.

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