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Lightweights

Donald Cerrone (36-16, 23-13 UFC) vs. Joe Lauzon (28-15, 15-12 UFC)

ODDS: Cerrone (-165), Lauzon (+145)

Better late than never. Initially scheduled for UFC 274, these two beloved lightweight veterans finally square off in a fight that somehow has not happened yet. It is a bit of a surprise to see Lauzon return to the UFC for the first time since 2019. Beyond the long layoff, Lauzon’s last fight was about the best note possible to go out on. Lauzon had a stunning UFC debut with an upset win over Jens Pulver in 2006, then made a name for himself as one of the most reliably exciting fighters on the UFC roster. Lauzon’s combination of fast starts, submission acumen and tendency to fade and get battered down the stretch turned a lot of his fights into back-and-forth wars, making him must-see entertainment while also keeping him short of title contention. Lauzon’s cardio issues got worse in the later stretches of his career, but he was still a viable fighter up through a narrow 2017 loss to Steven Ray, after which “J-Lau” seemed absolutely shot. Clay Guida knocked him out in just 67 seconds, and Lauzon gassed quickly and badly against Chris Gruetzemacher, retiring in between the second and third rounds. A year and a half after the Gruetzemacher loss, Lauzon was booked for a fight in his hometown of Boston against then-newcomer Jonathan Pearce, who figured to make easy work of a fading veteran. Instead, Lauzon was able to turn back the clock for 93 seconds, blitzing Pearce and overwhelming him on his way to a stoppage on the ground. Lauzon probably will not top that performance in this assignment, but perhaps the break between fights has served him well. Even in his diminished state, this is still a winnable fight for Lauzon against Cerrone.

“Cowboy” became a legendary figure in his own right, mostly through his willingness to fight as many times as possible. Cerrone is near the top of the UFC record books in a lot of cumulative categories and racked up those stats in much less time than his other well-traveled peers. For years, Cerrone’s career played out in a series of runs. His slow starts and occasional lack of durability would eventually cost him against an elite opponent, but he would eventually find his way back to a winning streak within months, using his muay Thai and underrated grappling game to dispatch opponents, seemingly while always having his next fight booked. Factoring in Cerrone’s reckless lifestyle, it is a miracle that he held up as long as he did as a near-elite fighter, though the wheels have finally started to come off in the last few years. Cerrone is now on a six-fight winless streak, and while losses to the likes of Justin Gaethje and Conor McGregor were the types of bouts that he would have lost even at his peak, his most recent defeat to Alex Morono was the sign that “Cowboy” may no longer be sustainable as a UFC fighter. Morono is scrappy, but it was still his first solid land of the fight that sent Cerrone reeling before he ended the fight in quick fashion. Cerrone’s historically slow starts, combined with the fact that he seems more fragile than ever, do provide an opening for Lauzon to score another blitzing win. At the same time, it is still hard to trust Lauzon after tiring in such short order against Gruetzemacher, even if he was able to rebound with a win. This is basically a coinflip as to whether Lauzon can finish Cerrone immediately or if “Cowboy” can score a win shortly after. The pick is Cerrone via second-round knockout.

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