Preview: UFC 272 Prelims

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Women’s Strawweights

#3 WSW | Marina Rodriguez (15-1-2, 5-1-2 UFC) vs. #4 WSW | Xiaonan Yan (13-2, 6-1 UFC)

ODDS: Rodriguez (-255), Yan (+205)

This might be the most relevant fight on the card in terms of divisional stakes, as Rodriguez, in particular, would be set up well for a title shot with a victory here. Rodriguez impressed on the one-off Brazilian edition of the Contender Series in 2018, but she came to the UFC with some questions about her game. She was obviously a talented striker but did not appear to be a standout athlete and had untested takedown defense. Her UFC debut shortly thereafter, in a bout against Randa Markos that wound up as a draw, essentially told the story. Markos completely dominated Rodriguez on the mat for a round, only to have Rodriguez even the fight out on the feet in the ensuing 10 minutes. That dynamic did not change much going forward. Rodriguez did wind up showing some improved takedown defense in a breakout win over Tecia Torres, but the Brazilian capped off 2019 with another draw against Cynthia Calvillo, with Calvillo taking over the third round with her grappling. It was Carla Esparza who eventually handed Rodriguez her first loss, though it was an impressive performance in defeat. While Esparza was obviously the better wrestler, Rodriguez did enough work from her back to earn one of the judges’ scorecards and generally make the fight much closer than you would expect. That paved the way for a breakout 2021 campaign that followed many of the same patterns for Rodriguez. She could struggle in extended grappling and wrestling exchanges but proved able to both survive on the mat and discourage her opponents on the feet, racking up wins over Amanda Ribas, Michelle Waterson and Mackenzie Dern. At 34 years old, Rodriguez is a bit older than you would expect, but she seems poised to make a run towards the title while she is still in her prime. She looks to keep her contender status alive against Yan.

Yan’s rise to contention was also a surprise, given that she was not particularly proven before the UFC signed her in 2017 for a card in mainland China. If nothing else, Yan’s first few fights proved that she belonged on the UFC roster, as she handled Kailin Curran, Viviane Pereira and Syuri Kondo without much issue. A 2019 win over Angela Hill was a sign that Yan could find true relevance within the division, which then came with a breakout 2020 run that saw her beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Claudia Gadelha. Neither victory has aged particularly well, but that is also a bit odd to say given how much of their respective downfalls has been due to Yan’s efforts. Yan’s battering of Kowalkiewicz resulted in a major eye injury that threatened her career, and Gadelha retired in part due to post-concussion symptoms caused by Yan. Either way, Yan’s May performance against Esparza did wind up halting her momentum. Unlike Rodriguez, Yan looked completely unable to compete with Esparza’s relentless wrestling attack, suffering a one-sided loss that ended in a second-round stoppage. Thankfully for Yan, Rodriguez does not pose anything like that type of threat, but Rodriguez herself should be able to open up against the weakest wrestler she has faced in a while. Yan might be a harder one-shot striker and should be able to cause some damage, but Rodriguez looks to be better schooled on the feet, have the advantage in the clinch and might be able to take this to the mat if everything else goes south. The pick is Rodriguez via decision.

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