UFC 133 Preview: The Main Card

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It should be called UFC 133 “Jinxed.” This weekend’s pay-per-view event -- which features Rashad Evans-Tito Ortiz 2 as the headliner on Saturday at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia -- is the most injury- and dropout-plagued card in recent memory, perhaps in the history of the sport.

Unless your team bus was consumed in a sinkhole that swallowed everyone but you, there is really no other comparison. Between entire bouts disappearing, such as the previously scheduled co-headliner pairing Antonio Rogerio Nogueira with Rich Franklin and the main event shuffle that saw Phil Davis drop out and replaced by Ortiz on a mere three weeks’ notice, UFC 133 is definitely a show that Zuffa LLC brass will be glad to put behind them.

Would it surprise anyone if UFC matchmaker Joe Silva stocks the arena with licensed fighters of the last-minute variety, just in case an unexpected zombie attack picks off a couple more guys? The undercard was also riddled with injuries too extensive to elucidate upon here.

Twists and turns aside, the Evans-Ortiz rematch could provide some intrigue.

After his huge win over Ryan Bader on July 2, Ortiz gave his lagging career a much-needed boost. With a draw against Ortiz in their first bout in 2007, Evans has an ideal opportunity to demonstrate his maturation as a fighter, proving he deserves a title shot at champion and former stablemate Jon Jones. Meanwhile, Ortiz has a great chance to upset those plans and deliver a second stunner in just over a month, which would send shockwaves through the light heavyweight division.

Here is a closer look at the event, with previews and picks.

Light Heavyweights
Rashad Evans (15-1-1, 10-1-1 UFC) vs. Tito Ortiz (16-8-1, 15-8-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Their first bout, waged at UFC 73, was a tense, back-and-forth affair in which the then-unbeaten, rising contender Evans escaped with a draw. The bout showed Evans that he could not physically overpower top 205-pounders with his wrestling, as Ortiz’s upper body strength and physicality gave him fits. He put Evans on his back longer than at any previous point in his UFC career.

Since then, the careers of the two men have gone in markedly different directions. Evans has become a UFC champion -- then promptly an ex-champion -- while showing improved standup and game planning. Ortiz hit a career slide only recently reversed with his stunning submission win over Bader at UFC 132. Given Evans’ mysterious inability to land a title shot and the opponent switch from Davis to Ortiz, one has to wonder how he will respond to what is virtually a no-win situation, other than getting some modicum of revenge for a bout fought four years ago.

Ortiz has nothing to lose, and, with a win, he could parlay his huge marketability into an improbable run at the 205-pound title. It would be the comeback story of this year -- or any year -- if he could pull off a win here. He has the tools to do it if Evans gets sucked into a grappling-heavy type of match.

Evans’ win over Quinton Jackson at UFC 114 -- the same Jackson now set to challenge the now-healthy Jones in October -- was a perfect example of how game planning wins fights. Jackson headhunted while Evans picked his spots and hit a couple key takedowns to win rounds, and the decision. Ortiz needs to land a big shot in early -- as he did against Bader -- and steamroll Evans to the mat, or he is going to get out-quicked, outpointed and possibly knocked out.

Evans has good power and timing on his strikes, and those will be key to setting up a takedown. Events have to unfold almost perfectly for Ortiz if he is to win.

The Pick: Evans will be too elusive, variable and improved off their first bout to be deterred. He walks away with a unanimous decision.

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