Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 99 ‘Hernandez vs. Pereira’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will be going tete-a-tete with the biggest show the Professional Fighters League can come up with on Saturday, and attention of fight fans may be diverted. Far from the UFC’s best offering, on paper there are still some dynamite matchups, especially in the main attraction. Join the abbreviated edition of Prime Picks for UFC Vegas 99 as we dive into that headlining thriller and also take a spin on a power-punching Brazilian wrecking a lengthy win streak.

Anthony Hernandez vs. Michel Pereira Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-150)

Two solid win streaks will collide in the middleweight main event of UFC Vegas 99, and one contender will emerge at night’s end. Since getting put away in about 40 seconds by Kevin Holland early into the pandemic, Hernandez has been on fire, with his submission over Rodolfo Vieira still one of the greatest grappling upsets seen this side of the cage. An opportunistic attacker, Hernandez will let his hands fly but ultimately wants to wrap his arms around his adversary and choke him in an uncomfortable fashion. Pereira and his thick neck may have something to say about that, and fireworks will ensue as these two offense-first players stand across the cage from one another. It might be memorable, but it will not likely be long-lasting. Phrasing.

Both fighters come into this pairing having finished their foe in their last three outings. While “Fluffy” has dragged his opponent into deep water and seized the right moment when they were slowing, Pereira has come shot out of a cannon, with a combined 3:01 in those three wins. It remains to be seen how much the gas tank will be a question for “Demolidor,” who is still more than willing to back flip his way into a guard pass. The Brazilian shows no sign of slowing down as he marches up the ladder at 185 pounds, and he is the perfect foil for Hernandez.

Hernandez is far from the most defensively focused competitors in his weight range, and he tends to take shots and bounce back well. His mad dashes into takedowns sometimes get him hurt, but he sets them up fairly well thanks to frantic swinging with a surprising amount of pop behind those blows. Pereira welcomes just such a melee, and these two bulls will crash into one another time and again until one falls. The likelihood of this going the distance is low, and the expectation is that these two will get it done before the end of the third round. All of Hernandez’ finishes have come before this under, while just one stoppage for Pereira has taken place after the 12:30 mark. The first round may be a bit bonkers, especially if Pereira lays into “Fluffy” early, and it will be up to Hernandez if he can survive the opening onslaught and put a flagging Pereira away in Rounds 2 or 3.

Matheus Nicolau (+170)

If there is a direct path to getting past Nicolau, it is to blitz him right out of the gate, never let him get comfortable in the cage and pour on the offense until he wilts. This has been the case in three of his four career losses, as foes have swarmed and overwhelmed him. Nicolau would much rather prefer to serve as an out-fighter, staying back and countering while constantly moving, and that has worked to his disadvantage as of late. The three men in the Octagon to defeat him have all attacked like whirling dervishes, and Nicolau can breathe a sigh of relief knowing that Asu Almabaev is not that kind of combatant. Instead of protecting himself from fists, feet, knees and elbows, Nicolau will largely need to be focused on stopping takedowns. Considering no foe in the UFC has grounded Nicolau more than once in a bout, the Nova Uniao product can rely on his stalwart defense to wear Almabaev out and take it to him when the latter fades.

The sample size of appearances on the major stage is limited for Almabaev, and it is a significant step up from C.J. Vergara and Jose Johnson to a former top-10 Nicolau. Whooping up on the likes of Darkhan Skakov and Kenan Jafarli may have prepared him for dispatching outmatched opposition, but not what to do when he finds that he is trying to take down a 125-pound stone wall. At his best, Nicolau is a smart, sharp fighter with remarkably fast hands—he is only five knockdowns shy of the flyweight record—and he is one of the toughest to hit cleanly in the weight class as well. If Almabaev can get his hands on Nicolau, the Brazilian will need to make sure above all else that he does not surrender his back. Nicolau is no slouch should things go horizontal—he celebrates a Japanese necktie on his submission ledger—and has more ways to win than his opponent, making him a very live underdog.