Fight OddsPreview: UFC 317 ‘Topuria vs. Oliveira’
Topuria vs. Oliveira
International Fight Week has arrived for the
Ultimate Fighting Championship, and
UFC 317 comes with a fun five-fight main card attached on
Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The headliner looks to
crown a new lightweight boss, and while it would have been nice if
soon-to-be former champion Islam
Makhachev was involved, ex-featherweight titleholder Ilia
Topuria moving up to take on Charles
Oliveira should still provide some high-level fireworks. Beyond
that, the show features two excellent flyweight spats. Champion
Alexandre
Pantoja gets a tough test in hard hitter Kai
Kara-France, while top prospect Joshua Van
steps in just three weeks after his last fight to take on top
contender Brandon
Royval. A lightweight tilt pitting Beneil
Dariush against Renato
“Money” Moicano also looks to be a well-matched affair, while
top bantamweight prospects Payton
Talbott and Felipe Lima
kick off festivities at 135 pounds.
Now to the UFC 317 “Topuria vs. Oliveira” preview:
BETTING ODDS: Topuria (-440), Oliveira (+340)
The Mitchell win set Topuria up as a potential contender heading into 2023, and his lone fight of that year showed that “El Matador” was clearly among the featherweight elite. Topuria flexed the ability to put the brakes on his hard-charging style, showing an excellent feel for when to back off and when to turn up the aggression, putting on a complete performance that left Josh Emmett with very few answers. That set Topuria up as Alexander Volkanovski’s first title challenger of 2024, which wound up as the first step of a one-two punch that few can ever match. Topuria took apart two all-time greats in Volkanovski and Max Holloway to suddenly put himself in some elite company when it comes to his excellence. For most fighters, beating two legends like Volkanovski and Holloway would require some sort of epic effort to gut through nip-tuck wars that left both men diminished. Instead, Topuria made both wins look somewhat easy. He ate some shots, particularly against Holloway, but got his reads and found a point to spring into action and blow each fight wide open. He knocked out Volkanovski in the second and Holloway in the third. It would have been nice to see Topuria continue his reign and make a case as the all-time great in what might be the UFC’s historically greatest weight class, but with the cut down to 145 pounds apparently becoming an issue, it’s understandable that he would want to vacate his title and move up to lightweight—particularly since a title challenge at Islam Makhachev would be one of the best fights the UFC could put on at the moment. However, fate intervened in the form of new welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena. After Della Maddalena beat Belal Muhammad—a friend of Makhachev’s—to win the title at 170 pounds in May, Makhachev decided to move up weight classes himself, leaving Topuria to instead take on a former lightweight champion in Oliveira for the vacant belt.
Oliveira might finally be slowing down just a bit, but “Do Bronx” has more than earned his own spot among the all-time greats of the sport, even if he took a much longer path than most to get there. Oliveira burst onto the UFC scene at 20 years old back in 2010, scoring an electric submission of Darren Elkins that marked him as one of the most exciting prospects in the sport. However, he quickly became a cautionary tale for the UFC’s aggressive matchmaking, particularly at the time. Oliveira would score an impressive win or two over a lower-level fighter only to immediately shoot up the ranks against a veteran who would crush him, resulting in an up-and-down career that seemed to squash the Brazilian’s confidence. By the time Oliveira got pounded out by Paul Felder in 2017, the die seemed to be cast. Oliveira was an all-time great submission artist who could conjure some amazing moments, but his tendency to crumble under adversity made him a bust as any sort of potential title contender. Three quick submission wins in 2018 didn’t do much to change that scouting report, but Oliveira’s first win of 2019—over David Teymur—seemed to be the moment where it all finally clicked.
As the situation suddenly got tough, Oliveira was on the verge of crumbling, then refused to do so, charging his way back to a submission victory. Oliveira was now suddenly actualized, reeling off 11 straight wins that included becoming the UFC’s first post-Khabib Nurmagomedov lightweight champion in 2021—a three-fight reign that brought both good vibes and plenty of excitement. At its best, Oliveira can leverage the threat of his grappling to become an exponentially better striker, marching down his opponents and either pouring on offense or winding up on his back and using his reputation on the mat to buy himself time to recover and start the process anew. Unfortunately, he wound up running into Makhachev back in 2022, only to find that the Russian had the skills to take Oliveira apart on the feet before following him to the ground and winning things there—an issue that also arose in a loss to Arman Tsarukyan in April 2024, albeit in a much closer fight. However, the Brazilian’s game still works at a high level, as that loss to Tsarukyan came between one-sided wins over Beneil Dariush and Michael Chandler. The bad news is that Topuria seems to be more on the level of Makhachev and Tsarukyan, even if there are some potential issues as the former featherweight champion moves up in weight. He will be undersized in his new weight class and has historically struggled the most against his tallest opponents, most notably nearly getting knocked out by lanky striker Jai Herbert in a one-off fight up at lightweight back in 2022. Of course, Topuria then stormed back and absolutely obliterated Herbert for one of the most vicious knockouts of his career; therein lies the rub. Giving Topuria trouble is one thing, but actually beating him is something else entirely. Oliveira has a better chance the most, if only because he can hop on a submission better than almost anyone in the sport if things start to go south for his opponent, but given how much the Brazilian invites his opponents to land offense, it’s hard not to see Topuria breaking this fight open in short order. The pick is Topuria via first-round knockout.
Continue Reading »
Topuria vs. Oliveira
Pantoja vs. Kara-France
Van vs. Royval
Moicano vs. Dariush
Lima vs. Talbott
The Prelims
Now to the UFC 317 “Topuria vs. Oliveira” preview:
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UFC Lightweight Championship
Ilia Topuria (16-0, 8-0) vs. Charles Oliveira (35-10, 23-10 UFC)BETTING ODDS: Topuria (-440), Oliveira (+340)
While there’s rightfully some disappointment about what this fight
could have been, this still should be a strong matchup fought at a
high level; and it’s always a pleasure to see Ilia
Topuria in action. Representing Georgia and Spain, Topuria was
obviously a featherweight prospect to watch ahead of his UFC debut
in 2020, running through opposition with a basic but dedicated
pressure-heavy approach. Within months, it became apparent that
Topuria had some ridiculously high upside. His brutal knockout of
Damon
Jackson was the beginning flashes of what would become one of
the best boxing games in the sport, and he proved himself capable
of outmaneuvering standout grapplers like Ryan Hall and
Bryce
Mitchell to eventually find the finish.
The Mitchell win set Topuria up as a potential contender heading into 2023, and his lone fight of that year showed that “El Matador” was clearly among the featherweight elite. Topuria flexed the ability to put the brakes on his hard-charging style, showing an excellent feel for when to back off and when to turn up the aggression, putting on a complete performance that left Josh Emmett with very few answers. That set Topuria up as Alexander Volkanovski’s first title challenger of 2024, which wound up as the first step of a one-two punch that few can ever match. Topuria took apart two all-time greats in Volkanovski and Max Holloway to suddenly put himself in some elite company when it comes to his excellence. For most fighters, beating two legends like Volkanovski and Holloway would require some sort of epic effort to gut through nip-tuck wars that left both men diminished. Instead, Topuria made both wins look somewhat easy. He ate some shots, particularly against Holloway, but got his reads and found a point to spring into action and blow each fight wide open. He knocked out Volkanovski in the second and Holloway in the third. It would have been nice to see Topuria continue his reign and make a case as the all-time great in what might be the UFC’s historically greatest weight class, but with the cut down to 145 pounds apparently becoming an issue, it’s understandable that he would want to vacate his title and move up to lightweight—particularly since a title challenge at Islam Makhachev would be one of the best fights the UFC could put on at the moment. However, fate intervened in the form of new welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena. After Della Maddalena beat Belal Muhammad—a friend of Makhachev’s—to win the title at 170 pounds in May, Makhachev decided to move up weight classes himself, leaving Topuria to instead take on a former lightweight champion in Oliveira for the vacant belt.
Oliveira might finally be slowing down just a bit, but “Do Bronx” has more than earned his own spot among the all-time greats of the sport, even if he took a much longer path than most to get there. Oliveira burst onto the UFC scene at 20 years old back in 2010, scoring an electric submission of Darren Elkins that marked him as one of the most exciting prospects in the sport. However, he quickly became a cautionary tale for the UFC’s aggressive matchmaking, particularly at the time. Oliveira would score an impressive win or two over a lower-level fighter only to immediately shoot up the ranks against a veteran who would crush him, resulting in an up-and-down career that seemed to squash the Brazilian’s confidence. By the time Oliveira got pounded out by Paul Felder in 2017, the die seemed to be cast. Oliveira was an all-time great submission artist who could conjure some amazing moments, but his tendency to crumble under adversity made him a bust as any sort of potential title contender. Three quick submission wins in 2018 didn’t do much to change that scouting report, but Oliveira’s first win of 2019—over David Teymur—seemed to be the moment where it all finally clicked.
As the situation suddenly got tough, Oliveira was on the verge of crumbling, then refused to do so, charging his way back to a submission victory. Oliveira was now suddenly actualized, reeling off 11 straight wins that included becoming the UFC’s first post-Khabib Nurmagomedov lightweight champion in 2021—a three-fight reign that brought both good vibes and plenty of excitement. At its best, Oliveira can leverage the threat of his grappling to become an exponentially better striker, marching down his opponents and either pouring on offense or winding up on his back and using his reputation on the mat to buy himself time to recover and start the process anew. Unfortunately, he wound up running into Makhachev back in 2022, only to find that the Russian had the skills to take Oliveira apart on the feet before following him to the ground and winning things there—an issue that also arose in a loss to Arman Tsarukyan in April 2024, albeit in a much closer fight. However, the Brazilian’s game still works at a high level, as that loss to Tsarukyan came between one-sided wins over Beneil Dariush and Michael Chandler. The bad news is that Topuria seems to be more on the level of Makhachev and Tsarukyan, even if there are some potential issues as the former featherweight champion moves up in weight. He will be undersized in his new weight class and has historically struggled the most against his tallest opponents, most notably nearly getting knocked out by lanky striker Jai Herbert in a one-off fight up at lightweight back in 2022. Of course, Topuria then stormed back and absolutely obliterated Herbert for one of the most vicious knockouts of his career; therein lies the rub. Giving Topuria trouble is one thing, but actually beating him is something else entirely. Oliveira has a better chance the most, if only because he can hop on a submission better than almost anyone in the sport if things start to go south for his opponent, but given how much the Brazilian invites his opponents to land offense, it’s hard not to see Topuria breaking this fight open in short order. The pick is Topuria via first-round knockout.
Continue Reading »
Topuria vs. Oliveira
Pantoja vs. Kara-France
Van vs. Royval
Moicano vs. Dariush
Lima vs. Talbott
The Prelims
More Fight Odds
