Preview: UFC on ESPN 24 ‘Rodriguez vs. Waterson’

Women’s Strawweights

#11 WSW | Amanda Ribas (10-2, 4-1 UFC) vs. #12 WSW | Angela Hill (13-9, 8-9 UFC)

ODDS: Ribas (-175), Hill (+155)

After having her UFC debut delayed by nearly two years due to issues with USADA, Ribas made up for lost time and immediately became a prospect to watch in 2019. She ran through Emily Whitmire and became the first woman to defeat Mackenzie Dern, all while showing a great deal of natural charisma that gave her the look of a future star. Ribas in 2020 handled Randa Markos with surprising ease and then earned a showcase win over Paige VanZant. At that point, Ribas headed into 2021 as a clear future title contender in the strawweight division. That still held true through one round of her January fight against Marina Rodriguez, which saw Ribas dominate the proceedings with her strong wrestling and grappling game. However, she ate one sharp counter near the beginning of the second round and got knocked loopy, leading to a finish that was both surprising and disheartening. Ribas still has a high ceiling at just 27 years of age, but given where her hype was just a few months ago, she could use a win here. Hill does not figure to make it easy.

It has been a fairly up-and-down UFC career for Hill, who looks to have finally found a niche in recent years. Hill was essentially thrown to the wolves in her first UFC stint. She had all of one professional win prior to her stint on “The Ultimate Fighter,” and she was quickly matched with title contenders Tecia Torres and Rose Namajunas, then cut after two losses. It took “Overkill” only a year to earn her way back to the Octagon, as she spent 2016 winning four fights in 10 months and becoming Invicta Fighting Championships strawweight titleholder, at which point the UFC brought her back into the fold. The first few fights after Hill’s UFC return were a bit frustrating. She had some excellent performances and was obviously a much-improved fighter, but she struggled to find the consistency to earn wins. After treading water for a bit, Hill decided to fight as frequently as possible, at which point her career took off. Prior to the pandemic, she had racked up six fights in just 11 months and had won her last three. However, 2020 was a double-edged sword for Hill. She had earned enough renown to get two prominent spots, facing Claudia Gadelha and headlining a card against Michelle Waterson, but she walked away with two losses. Conventional wisdom seems to be that Hill should have won both fights, which makes the losses sting even more, but the need to pace herself—along with her lack of finishing ability—means she rarely fully takes over a fight. With that said, her March win over Ashley Yoder was about as one-sided a victory as Hill has had in recent memory, so there is the chance that she could be turning yet another corner.

This is an excellently made fight, as Hill could present Ribas with a lot of problems. The loss to Rodriguez showed that Ribas does have some defensive flaws in her striking. While Hill is unlikely to score a knockout in the same manner, she should have little difficulty scoring counters on the Brazilian. As a result, Ribas’ path to victory likely has to go through wrestling or the clinch, either of which could present some difficulties. Hill has always been strong in the clinch, and her takedown defense has improved greatly in recent years. Waterson attempted 18 takedowns over the course of their five-round fight and only succeeded with one of them, so if Hill can turn Ribas’ wrestling and grappling attempts into a stalemate, this becomes a much more even fight where she should be more technically effective. Even so, the athleticism gap is a concern. While Hill is likely Ribas’ stoutest opponent to date, the Brazilian has been particularly impressive in the way she has been able to bull around her opponents. Frankly, even if this turns into more of a striking match, Ribas’ power advantage might be enough to make up any gaps in volume or accuracy—a dynamic that has played out often in Hill’s fights. If this goes the distance, this has contentious split decision written all over it. The pick is Ribas via decision.

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